Tonight – March 4 – was once again a deciding moment in the campaign season as once again the opportunity for a settled democratic nomination came and went. Senator Hillary Clinton, after not winning a single one of the eleven contests since February 5 (you remember, the real super Tuesday that was supposed to decide everything), came back and won Ohio (perhaps Texas, but I want to head to bed).
This was a major moment in the faltering campaign of the former first lady. Her chances for the nomination would have come to an end if she hadn’t won at least one of the two states with high delegate counts tonight (no offense to Vermont or Rhode Island but their combined total of 18 delegates was never going to save Mrs. Clinton).
Now the Democratic nominating process will continue on to the Wyoming caucuses on Saturday where Obama, being the “king of the caucus,” will almost certaintly win, and then continue to Mississippi on the March 11. These two states basically don’t matter. We’re going to have the longest break we’ve had so far since this season began between competitive contests. The Pennsylvania primary – the next big Super Duper Tuesday – is not until April 22.
Pennsylvania is a lot like Ohio. It is was manufacturing state that has been hit hard by economic woes and the transporting of jobs overseas. It may end up being an easy win for Mrs. Clinton, who won neighboring Ohio decisively tonight . The Obama strategy could be to focus on the states that follow – like Indiana and North Carolina on May 6 and the races that follow in West Virginia, Oregon and Montana.
What is most important to remember is that all democratic contests are proportional, that the delegate remains in favor of Obama because Clinton is not winning by significant enough margins in states that might effect the deleagat outcome.
Although he has essentially been the nominee since Mitt Romney dropped out on February 7th, tonight John McCain did finally reach the needed 1,191 delegates to claim the Republican nomination.
3 Comments
March 5, 2008 at 5:22 pm
“These two states (WY and MS) basically don’t matter.” Really? It all matters at this point. Unless, of course, you are Hillary Clinton. In that case, you diminish the roles of every contest you lose and make non-contests like Florida and Michigan sound like they matter.
March 6, 2008 at 9:07 pm
Julia,
Good to see you back in the blogging game. I am confused somewhat about the Super Delegates. I have been a voting member of the Democratic Party for the past 39 years, and I do not recall ever hearing anything about Super Delegates. Is that because they have never come into play previously. This is the most interesting election.
March 8, 2008 at 9:06 pm
“King of the Caucus”, thats so great!