Not This Again

Hillary Clinton isn’t going anywhere it seems. She’s taking her fight all the way to the convention floor – a convention floor that, if she has her way, will have the Florida and Michigan delegation seated.

Tonights decisive primaries in North Carolina and Indiana did not live up to their potential. They weren’t decisive. Barack Obama, as predicted, won the North Carolina primary by sizable margin while Indiana was a toss-up in the polls and even as I’m writing this it hasn’t been called. That being said, Obama just conceded Indiana in his victory speech in North Carolina (maybe he has numbers the networks don’t have.)

So it looks like the play goes on without any actors exiting the scene. After tonight there is no real big delegate prize left besides those all important superdelegates that are now guaranteed to have to choose the Democratic nominee. Interestingly enough, after Hillary Clinton large victory in Pennsylvania it has actually been Barack Obama that has had more superdelegates come out in support including Joe Andrew, the former DNC chair who entered that post during the last years of the Clinton administration.

Unless during the next month a huge number of superdelegates announce their support for Barack Obama, this contest will continue and be hashed out on the convention floor. At this point, why not? We’ve waited this long for a Democratic nominee, what would be so wrong with waiting a few more month? An interesting convention may be the solution for disenchanted Democratic Party.

Wright Is Wrong But Let’s Not Go Overboard

Hey, I’m one of the millions of American’s that was offended by the notion that America is responsible for 9/11 and I don’t believe that the government is responsible for the AIDS epidemic. So in my view Reverend Wright was wrong but I don’t think that he is necessarily hurting America.

Wednesday I attended a live broadcast of NPR’s Talk of The Nation (you can hear me ask a question about superdelegate endorsement trends in the first 15 minutes). Professor Ron Walters was a guest who talked about the effect of Reverend Wright on the Obama campaign and about Wright’s popularity and reach in the black community. However, it was two callers that really illustrated how drastically Jeremiah Wright has transformed the national conversation away from the issues of the campaign.

First, there was Greg from Raleigh, North Carolina who asked why doesn’t Reverend Wright, who seems so unhappy with the problems in America, just leave. Neal Conan, the host, said “Well perhaps because he’s from here and spent his entire life here.” Greg didn’t accept that. Neal then suggested that maybe Reverend Wright is trying to make the country a better place. This was a great point, and the audience responded with applause (maybe just by the fact that Neal shut up Greg, the ridiculous caller). I don’t agree with everything Reverend Wright said but I do think that his heart in the right place. He is getting his constituency to, whether you believe this or not, recognize and care about the issues surrounding them. Rightfully or wrongfully, he’s spreading a message.

Later in the show another caller, Barbara from Miami, got into a bit of a conversation with Neal and Prof. Walters about how she feels its too late for Senator Obama, that he should have distanced himself from Reverend Wright earlier and that if you’re sitting in a church for 20 years you better know what’s being said. Prof. Walters said “Well if Obama is anything like me, he didn’t go to church every Sunday” but once again this was not a happy listener. Barbara reminded Prof. Walters that minutes earlier he had highlighted the importance of Reverend Wright in the black community and she said “I’m sure this kind of talk is well known, not just to parishioners but among the leaders themselves of these churches. I heard that Oprah Winfrey wanted to be a member of the church and she said ‘No way! I’m outta here’” (of course no one can confirm that).

What has really made me angry about this whole situation (besides the fact that it’s a sensational story that distracts from actual issues) is that the solution many of these white Americans see (getting rid of Reverend Wright, not joining the church) doesn’t solve anything. All this media coverage has actually educated white Americans about the dialogue that exists in thousands of churches that they would probably have never and would never consider attending. The solution is not getting rid of Reverend Wright or distancing yourself from the church – the solution is bringing everything, everyone to the table and talking, creating one American dialogue.

Hill and Bill

Hillary Clinton made her FoxNews debut last night on The O’Reilly Factor. In the first 15 minutes of the one hour interview that will be spread over four nights (those Fox executives know how to keep the ratings high) Bill O’Reilly wanted to talk about the one thing every Fox personality is obsessed with – Jeremiah Wright. Rather than start off the interview with a actual question, Bill O’Reilly started off by asking “Can you believe this guy.” Oh Please!

from www.youtube.com posted with vodpod

Something Isn’t Right

When I first saw this ad on YouTube I really liked all the history involved, the perspective of the role of the Presidency throughout the 20th century. It was kinda cool having stuff about the stock market crash, the footage of FDR, even the quote by Harry Truman (this may be the perfect ad for those older voters who actually remember that stuff). As I was watching, I realized something didn’t feel right. I couldn’t put my finger on it until the third time I watched it all the way through. The narrator is a man! Let me explain why this bothered me. The ad is about experience, about the job of the presidency – what it takes. Every crisis shown has been dealt with by a man up until now because we’ve never had a female President. That being said, the one thing the campaign could have controlled was the sex of the narrator. They could have opted for a strong female voice to give the information but instead they went with an older deep male voice – the voice of experience. Personally I found that this ad sounded like something fit for John McCain, not Hillary Clinton because at the end it was almost shocking that a woman would be the one to take up the guard. Afterall, why would this strong voiced gentleman break with tradition. Sure this is not meant for a general election, this is meant for a primary about the arguably inexperienced and young Barack Obama. But why a male voice? Why stick with convention?

from www.youtube.com posted with vodpod

Debate 21 For Some Tired Democrats

It’s six days before the Pennsylvania primary and tonight in Philadelphia Senator Hillary Clinton and Senator Barack Obama returned to prime-time for yet another debate. While the first 40 minutes of the 21st democratic debate may have actually been engaging, by the time 8:50  rolled around I was reaching for the remote trying hard to avoid the temptation to channel surf.

It has been almost one year from the first Democratic debate (MSNBC April 27, 2007) and, while back then there were 40 or so candidates, the Democratic Party is no closer to having a nominee. Sure, Senator Obama has a clear lead in pledged delegates but what does that mean? Senator Clinton made it clear tonight that she’s “still here,” still trying to convince everyone (well, really only the voters of Pennsylvania and the other remaining states as well as the people that actually matter – superdelegates) that she is the safer candidate to put up against John McCain.

Clinton had a good night but it’s not clear whether she was on top of her stuff or the moderators were just better at attacking Obama. There were questions tonight attacking all his vulnerabilities (even the flag pin thing was brought up again).  Clinton on the other hand dealt with questions about her faulty Bosnia recollections (I guess I could just call it embellishments since tonight she said she knew what she was recalling was wrong) but for the most part it was Obama that was forced to play defense.

One of the most notable exchanges came with the rather unimportant issue of association with members of the Weather Underground aka Weathermen. Yeah, I’m serious, that 1960s/70s radical group is playing a role in the 2008 presidential campaign (maybe this is a sign that we’re running out of things to talk about). In the late 90s Obama sat on a board of a charity in Chicago with William Ayers, a current English professor and an influential member of the Weather Underground. The issue is that in an interview published in The New York Times on September 11, 2001  Ayers said, “I don’t regret setting bombs, I feel we didn’t do enough.”  This quote has become an unnecessary issue because the interview in which he said this was published on that tragic day, not in response to it.  It was really just a case of poor timing. Obama called all this stuff a distraction and compared the issue to his relationships with Republican Senators:

“The fact is that I’m also friendly with Tom Coburn, one of the most conservative Republicans in the United States Senate, who during his campaign once said that it might be appropriate to apply the death penalty to those who carried about abortions. Do I need to apologize for Mr. Coburn’s statements?”

All this doesn’t really matter when you consider that Obama was prepared to shoot Hillary Clinton down when he reminded the audience and the moderators that President Clinton was the one to pardon two female members of the Weather Underground at the end of his term.

Clinton is going to win Pennsylvania so right now it comes down to what the margin of victory will be. The campaign is getting more intense by the minute (Clinton attacking Obama’s “bitter” statement in San Francisco, Obama saying people are rejecting Hillary’s dirty tactics) but really all that is going on is Clinton convincing superdelegates that she is still relevant and that Obama isn’t vetted while he tries to maintain the confidence necessary to secure the nomination without getting into trouble (so far he’s had some problems).

Personally, I hope after Pennsylvania there won’t be anymore Democratic debates. 21 is enough. I’m tired of it, they must be too… at least they seem to be.

Clinton Questions Petraeus & Crocker

As a member of the Armed Services Committee Senator Clinton had the opportunity to QUESTION Petraeus but she seemed to take this opportunity to speak out against Iraq. Her first question didn’t come until 4:30 seconds into her diatribe. At the same time, it is clear that she has a thorough command of the situation. She asked aggressive questions but it is clear that Petraeus, throughout his testimony, is not here to negotiate – he’s here to report.

from www.realclearpolitic posted with vodpod

Happy Birthday To Me

Since this is my “political playground” I have decided to mark today with a Happy Birthday fit for a president.

from www.youtube.com posted with vodpod

The Democratic Process of The Superdelegates

There are 21 days until the Pennsylvania primary where once again we get to have an all night pundit party (I’ve actually  begun to miss Paul Begala a little bit). Once again we will have hours of cable networks showing off their cool graphics, dramatic music, long speeches from the candidates about moving forward to Indiana and North Carolina, what they have learned in Pennsylvania. And of course they will mention the people they have touched – the waitress without healthcare, the factory worker whose job has been shipped overseas, etc.

What we have to remember is that this is no longer about electoral politics – well, not in the conventional sense of the term. Pennsylvania, Indiana, North Carolina, Oregon, Kentucky, Montana and Puerto Rico (just to name a few) are holding primaries but the outcomes mean very little. It is almost impossible for Hillary Clinton to catch up with Barack Obama in the pledged delegate count and it is damn near impossible for either Clinton or Obama to get the necessary 2,024 delegates needed to claim the party nomination without having this getting to the backroom politics. And while some Obama surrogates are suggesting that Hillary Clinton needs to drop out, Bill Clinton is saying that we need to “chill out” and let the process continue as is.

Both camps know that this will come down to the superdelegates – those 796 party elite (and not so elite) automatic delegates that each candidate has been courting like crazy. There are approximately 257 superdelegates remaining who have yet to declare themselves for either candidate, but even those who are declared are able to change their mind whenever they please. And their decision is made by them, not by how voters in their home state or district decided. With nothing set in stone, all these delegates are put in the bizarre position of deciding amongst themselves who will be the Democratic Party nominee.

On Sunday March 16 The New York Times ran a front-page story about the fear among those undecided superdelegates who are nervous about their inevitable role. While at the time of the article many said they will let the process play out and eventually one of the candidates would step aside, now it is no longer clear that will happen. Without Florida or Michigan being counted, it will never be certain who the people’s nominee is. Thus, Hillary Clinton (the candidate who is behind in the popular vote and delegate count) is unwavering in her determination to play this to the end. The superdelegates are already faced with the daunting task of deciding what the best choice is for the party. Without Florida and Michigan being counted, we can’t say with any certainity who is or should be considered the “will of the voters.” It’s a mess.

The superdelegates are forced to look at their choice in terms of who is the strongest nominee against John McCain but also who is the best nominee for themselves. Many of these superdelegates are up for reelection and whether they like it or not, they have to think in terms of whose coattails they want to be riding. It was clear for a while that Obama had less negatives than Clinton and therefore could be the safer candidate atop the ticket. Once Jeremiah Wright’s soundbytes started playing, however, superdelegates (along with supporters) got nervous and although there are more hits on Obama’s speech on Youtube than any Wright sermon, fears haven’t entirely been quelled.

Of course, once the Wright controversy began to die down, then Clinton got herself into her own controversy over the rememberances that she faced enemy sniper fire during a trip to Bosnia when she was First Lady, while video has since been shown that her recpetion was extremely friendly. If Hillary’s argument is that she is tested on foreign policy because of her experience as first lady, then this argument took a shot. And it left undecided superdelegates further confused.

For all the controversy over these superdelegates determining the nominee, it is important to recognize is that this is exactly how the system was designed to work. There was a time when all we had were delegates that took care of the nominating process for us (Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson walked into the 1952 Democratic National Convention as a non-candidate and walked out as the nominee). With the establishment of a primary system to select the nominee, Democrats found themeselves with George McGovern (loser of 49 states in 1972) and Jimmy Carter (a less than successful president). That’s when the Democratic Party saw a need for “adult supervision” after the mediocrity of George McGovern and Jimmy Carter in the 1970s. Superdelegates were introduced in 1984 to be the gatekeepers for the general election (and look how successful Walter Mondale turned out to be!) But here we are, 24 years later, with a race that is exceptionally close and between two outstanding and formidable candidates.

We’ve also reached a point where a sizable chun of each candidate’s supporters say that if their choice is no the nominee come November they are saying they will either sit the election out or vote for John McCain. No matter who the delegates choose, a large chunk of the Democratic Party is going to be angry or disappointed.

Both Howard Dean and Nancy Pelosi have been practically pleading for this to be resolved well before the convention comes around. But it remains unclear whether we will know for sure who  the Democratic nominee is by mid-June.  While I cannot predict what will happen, I have to say that that nothing sounds more threatening or intimidating than getting into a back room with any of the big players attached to the Clinton campaign (Bill Clinton, for one). The Clinton campaign – as we have seeen throughout this primary season – will do whateverit takes to win. They will embark on the most aggressive (and some say even dirty) courtship of superdelegates we have ever seen.

Is this democratic? No, but its politics.

The Most Important Speech on Race of My Lifetime (Since 1986)

This isn’t just any speech, this is THE SPEECH. This speech isn’t about his candidacy as much as it’s a social commentary on the state of race in America. Watch it. It’s inspiring and honest.

from my.barackobama.com posted with vodpod

If Eliot Spitzer Was In France He Would Probably Still Be In Office

I haven’t written anything in quite awhile and look at what has happened. Wyoming and Mississippi held their contests and once again Barack Obama has momentum. Was there anything else in the news?

Since the last time I wrote Eliot Spitzer, the soon to be former New York Governor and Client 9, was caught with his pants down, so to speak. We’re all familiar with what happened – the high priced prostitute brought to D.C., the wiretaps, the money “structuring.” The story has been inescapable.

To be completely honest, I didn’t know what to write. I could barely wrap my head around what I was watching and reading. I was in shock that my first jewish president could have so many skeletons in the closet – well, at least one very naughty one. Within 48 hours of the story breaking he was standing up at podium announcing his resignation. With that kind of turn around time, it was hard for me to figure out what my own opinion of the man was.

The talking heads kept comparing this scandal to Senator Larry Craig, who was caught soliciting sex in an airport Men’s room, or Senator David Vitter, who showed up on a D.C. madam’s client list. They talked about President Clinton and Monica Lewinsky and the eventual impeachment that followed. All three men were able to stay in office after their illicit misdeeds. I want to offer up another comparison – Nicolas Sarkozy the new beloved President of France who within a few months of taking office divorced his wife and married a super model. Could you imagine if that was OUR president! The media would combust with intrigue!

Of course everyone is saying that the major difference with Spitzer is that he had based his entire career on being the moral authority – prosecuting wall street titans, going after organized crime and, oddly enough, prostitution rings. No one is a saint but Eliot Spitzer’s fall from grace is of biblical proportion when you consider how angelic he presented himself.